Bitcoin is just nine years old, yet the digital currency is an important discussion topic in the business world. Nobody can predict what the future holds for Bitcoin. Noah Smith tries and thinks there are three possible scenarios for Bitcoin.
Scenario 1: Bitcoin replaces Fiat currencies
In the first scenario, Bitcoin replaces the world’s common Fiat currencies (EUR, USD, JPY, etc.). Bitcoin becomes the standard for all types of transactions, such as mortgage payments, customs duties, etc. Well-known tech industry entrepreneurs, such as Jack Dorsey (Twitter and Square) and Steve Wozniak believe Bitcoin will become the global currency over the next decade.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin replaces gold
The second scenario turns Bitcoin into the new gold, the digital gold. BTC replaces fiat currencies only in failed economies, such as Venezuela today. Instead, Bitcoin is a limited and valuable commodity that could protect investors against stock market crashes.
Smith believes this scenario is the most likely, as this is the path of least resistance to the digital currency. However, he bases his conclusion on only two parameters: the BTC / USD exchange rate and the USD inflation rate.
Based on the likely behavior of these two parameters, Smith believes that bitcoin is destined to become gold. He also mentions the fact that bitcoin is limited to gold.
Scenario 3: Bitcoin fails
Of course, the failure of the cryptocurrency is also taken into consideration. The value could fall dramatically and people could lose interest and, more importantly, lose confidence in the digital currency, making Bitcoin worthless. As a result, Bitcoin would only be left on the junkyard of failed digital revolutions.
For this scenario, there are some supposed experts, because not everyone is as optimistic as Smith. Joseph Carson of Thycotic is convinced that this scenario will arrive:
The most likely scenario is that Bitcoin will become extinct. My current rating of Bitcoin is approximately $ 43 […]. The [high] cost of mining and the fact that more and more retailers are rejecting Bitcoin as a form of payment because they can not convert it because it’s too expensive will be the end of it.
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